The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted maritime and air traffic, damaging critical infrastructure and interrupting transport corridors essential to the movement of energy and goods.
The Fund said the disruptions could have lasting effects on global trade and economic activity, even if an enduring peace is achieved.
According to the IMF, there is unlikely to be a simple return to pre-conflict conditions, with transport networks expected to face continued challenges.
The Fund highlighted developments in the Red Sea, where attacks on commercial shipping that began in 2023 forced vessels to take longer routes around Africa instead of using the Suez Canal.
More than two years after the attacks began, shipping transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and Djibouti remain at roughly half their pre-attack levels, the IMF said.
The Fund noted that the outlook for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and regional air traffic remains uncertain.
It warned that prolonged disruptions to shipping and aviation could slow economic growth, increase supply chain costs and affect industries that depend heavily on tourism and imports.
The impact could also be felt by consumers through higher prices for food and other essential goods, with lower-income households likely to bear a larger share of the burden.
The IMF said that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and regional air traffic recover as slowly as traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the negative impact on economic growth could continue long after the conflict ends.
The Fund therefore stressed the need for policies aimed at strengthening the resilience of global transport networks to protect economic growth, trade and livelihoods.
